The NFL Divisional Playoffs Dashboard
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Packers at Cowboys
The Packers will travel to Jerry World to take on the Cowboys this Sunday afternoon. The Cowboys are currently favored by 4.5 points and are implied to score 28.5 points. The Packers are currently implied to score 24 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers’ last eight games of football have been absolutely astounding. He’s thrown 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions while surpassing 300 passing yards during five of those games. Still, Rodgers’ hot streak may have to survive without the services of his No. 1 wide receiver, Jordy Nelson, who is questionable for Sunday after suffering multiple fractured ribs during the Packers’ Wild Card win over the Giants. The potential absence of Nelson would be bad news for Rodgers, as he’s historically struggled without his go-to receiver:
Per RotoViz, Rodgers has averaged over four fewer fantasy points during his 16 games without Nelson since 2013. The biggest cause of concern is his efficiency, as his yards-per-attempt mark has fallen from 8.31 with Nelson to just 6.75 without.
The other factor that is working against Rodgers this week is his home/away splits. You’d think moving from Green Bay to anywhere with warm weather would be a positive for most quarterbacks, but this hasn’t historically been the case for Rodgers:
Per our Trends tool, Rodgers has averaged 3.34 fewer DraftKings points per game on the road over the past three seasons. His Consistency has dropped a whopping 18 percent on the road, and he simply hasn’t been the same QB away from Lambeau Field. This doesn’t mean Rodgers can’t ball out on the road (he threw for four touchdowns in games away from Lambeau twice this season), but historically he hasn’t been the world-beater he is at home.
Rodgers is the most-expensive QB on both DK and FanDuel this week. His $8,200 price tag on DK is $400 more than his season-high salary. Rodgers is on a special streak that has seen him surpass 25 DK points during eight of his last 11 games, but keep in mind that you’re paying a premium for a QB who plays worse on the road, could be without his No. 1 WR, and faces an opposing secondary that Pro Football Focus graded as the best in the league this season.
RB – Ty Montgomery
Montgomery went for 162 rushing yards and two touchdowns during the Packers’ Week 15 win over the Bears. He’s underwhelmed since:
Per our Trends tool, he’s posted a -3.47 Plus/Minus with zero percent Consistency and has averaged just 8.97 DK points during his last three games. Montgomery hasn’t found the end zone since Week 15 and hasn’t been very involved in the offense. Overall, he’s averaged 12.66 touches per game over the past three weeks and has surrendered 25-plus snaps to Aaron Ripkowski during consecutive weeks.
Montgomery had a lot of success as a receiver during the Packers’ Week 6 loss to the Cowboys, as he converted his 12 targets into a 10-98-0 line. Still, he’s had more than five targets in a game just once since then and faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed the fewest average rushing yards and fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Montgomery is priced at $6,000 on FD with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.03 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Christine Michael and Aaron Ripkowski
Ripkowski played more snaps than Montgomery during the Packers’ Week 17 win over the Lions, and he played 25 snaps last week. Still, he had just four touches last week and has had double-digit touches in a game just once this season. Michael has continued to offer nothing as a receiver, although his 47 yards last week were his most with the Packers. Neither back should be considered a fantasy option this week due to their volatile workloads and tough matchup against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 1.1 DK points below salary-based expectations to running backs over the past 12 months.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson reportedly fractured “at least” two ribs during the Packers’ Wild Card win over the Giants and it will take an incredible effort for him to suit up for Sunday. He spent the night in the hospital after going down last week and the Packers aren’t ruling him out yet, although coach Mike McCarthy did say Nelson must practice by Saturday in order to play.
If Nelson is active, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be able to play a full game’s worth of snaps. He’ll also be challenged by the return of Morris Claiborne, PFF’s 13th-highest graded cornerback this season. Nelson has been targeted fewer than eight times in five of his last seven playoff games, which is troubling considering his history of underperforming in games with fewer than eight targets:
Nelson finished the season ranked second among all WRs in average DK points per game. He costs only $7,400 on DK this week, but be sure to monitor our News feed, as he is a tough sell as a cash option at less than 100 percent.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams’ 12 targets last week were his most since Week 8. He took advantage of the extra opportunities, as he put up an 8-125-1 line despite facing off against the elite Giants secondary. He’s scored seven touchdowns during his last seven games and has routinely taken advantage of his role as the team’s deep threat. Overall, Adams’ 14.1-yard aDOT from Week 9 on is the highest mark among all Packers WRs. He’s made good use of his downfield opportunities all season, as his average of 2.03 fantasy points per target ranks 11th among all wide receivers. Adams is priced at $7,400 on FanDuel with a 94 percent Bargain Rating and is the second-highest rated WR in Adam Levitan’s Model.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb posted an absurd 5-116-3 line last week, but there are a few reasons why we shouldn’t necessarily count on this level of excellence carrying over to this week:
• Cobb’s seven targets were as many as he had during his previous three games.
• Cobb was the main beneficiary of the loss of Giants slot cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, PFF’s sixth-highest graded cornerback this season.
• Cobb has historically struggled without Nelson in the lineup.
This last point is especially important, as Cobb’s splits without Nelson are surprising:
Cobb’s sample size of games without Nelson consists entirely of the 2015 season. He averaged an additional 0.69 targets per game with Nelson sidelined, but Cobb failed to produce with the extra opportunity. Adams is more likely to soak up any outside production that Nelson leaves behind, as Cobb has lined up in the slot on 78 percent of his snaps this season. Cobb faced more double coverage last season during Nelson’s absence, and Cobb’s excellent game last week plus Nelson’s potential absence has caused his salary to increase by over $1,000 on both DK and FD.
WR – Geronimo Allison
Allison was targeted an average of 6.5 times during the last two weeks of the regular season, but he was targeted just twice last week. He shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option if Nelson is ultimately unable to suit up, but his $3,900 price tag on DK makes him an enticing option if Nelson is forced to sit.
TE – Jared Cook
Cook is averaging 7.5 targets per game over his last four games, and he ran a route on 35 of Rodgers’ 45 dropbacks last week. The Cowboys have struggled with tight ends all season and especially so lately. Overall, they allowed the third-most average fantasy points per game to TEs this season. Zach Ertz went 13-139-2 in Week 17, Eric Ebron went 8-93-0 in Week 16, and Cameron Brate went 5-73-1 in Week 15. Cook is priced at $5,400 on FD with an 87 percent Bargain Rating and has seven Pro Trends.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
As noted in this space last week, the Packers allowed the most passing yards (4,593), third-most passing touchdowns (31), and seventh-most DraftKings points per game (PPG) to quarterbacks (20.1) during the 2016 season. Per our Trends tool, Green Bay allowed a +5.55 Plus/Minus to QBs — the third-highest mark in the league — over their final five games of the regular season. Prescott is currently the No. 1 quarterback in all four of our Pro Models for DK, where he has FantasyLabs projected ownership of 13 to 16 percent in tournaments.
Prescott generated a +6.35 Plus/Minus with 85.7 percent Consistency when playing as a home favorite this season. Only once in seven games did he score fewer than 19.2 DK points. On the other side of the ball, the Packers defense allowed 23.08 DK points per game (PPG) on the road this season compared to 16.92 DK PPG at Lambeau Field. Dak threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns at Lambeau in Week 6. In a game with shootout potential, Prescott is an excellent play in all formats.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott finished the season with the most rushing attempts (322), rushing yards (1,631), and third-most rushing touchdowns (15) in the NFL. His average of 5.9 evaded tackles per game was the third-best mark among all running backs this season, and he was Pro Football Focus’ N0. 2 graded overall running back behind only Le’Veon Bell. Also, Cowboys guards Zack Martin and Ronald Leary — who cleared the way for Zeke all season — were the No. 1 and No. 10 run blockers at their position, per PFF.
Zeke averaged 24.35 touches per game during the Cowboys’ first 15 games of the season, and he had fewer than 20 touches in a game just twice. Elliott trampled the Packers’ rush defense for 157 yards in Week 6 at Lambeau Field. Obviously, Elliott is in play on both sites, but he’s extremely valuable on FanDuel, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating and is the No. 1 running back in all four of our Pro Models. Elliott averaged 20.47 FD PPG at home this season and provided a +7.39 Plus/Minus in eight games.
Per our Trends tool, when playing on the road this season, the Packers allowed a chunky +7.22 Plus/Minus on FD to running backs with a projected ceiling of 15 or more points. Zeke has been a beast all season and there’s no reason to believe the Cowboys will stop feeding him in this spot. Let Zeke eat in your lineups this week.
WR – Dez Bryant
Bryant was somewhat erratic early in the season, but, from the seventh to the 15th game of the season, he was targeted an average of eight times per game and scored at least 16.2 DK PPG in all but three of those nine games. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Bryant’s 20.49 percent target share over the last four games leads the Cowboys and is seventh among all players remaining in the playoffs.
Dez is currently the fourth-rated wide receiver in the Bales Player Model for FD, where he has five Pro Trends, an 80 percent Bargain Rating, and projected ownership well below pricier studs Antonio Brown and Julio Jones. The Packers allowed the most FD PPG (35.5) and second-most DK PPG (43.3) to WRs this season. Bryant makes for an excellent GPP play this weekend.
WR – Cole Beasley
It was a tale of two seasons for Beasley. He was beginning to look like Prescott’s favorite option during the first eight games of the season, but once Bryant returned to health, Beasley experienced a precipitous decline in his DK PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency.
During the final four games of the regular season, Beasley slipped to third in the Cowboys’ passing game with 17.21 percent of the targets (per Mears’ Market Share Report). That said, Beasley did score two touchdowns against this Packers defense in Week 6.
WR – Terrance Williams
Williams was targeted 19 times in the final four games of the regular season and scored double-digit DK points in three of those games. Per our Matchups tool, T-Will will get some shots at Damarious Randall, whose 39.1 PFF coverage grade is the eighth-worst score at the cornerback position in 2016. Williams is priced at the $4,500 minimum on FD, where he is currently a top-five rated wide receiver in the Adam Levitan Player Model.
TE – Jason Witten
Witten mixed in one monster game this season with a bunch of mediocre and uninspiring efforts otherwise. Witten currently has some of the lowest ownership projections among tight ends on both sites, but especially on FD, where we project him at just five to eight percent. He played virtually every snap for the Cowboys this season, and over the past four games Witten is second on the team in targets (18.03 percent). The tight end position was an absolute dumpster fire during Wild Card Weekend and stacking Witten with Dak and other Cowboys is a potential way of differentiating your tournament lineups.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
