This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Noah Syndergaard: Pitcher, Mets
Update: Robert Gsellman will start in place of Noah Syndergaard on Wednesday.
We can learn a lot about daily fantasy sports by studying data from the DFS Ownership Dashboard. One early-season trend to stand out is that high-stakes players have been willing to pay up for pitching. On Tuesday, even with a plethora of expensive bats available, the “sharps” ponied up the $14,300 for Clayton Kershaw at an extremely high rate in the $5,300 Thunderdome:
While there’s only one Kershaw, Syndergaard is Kershaw-esque. He’s currently a -196 moneyline favorite against the Braves, and pitchers with comparable Vegas odds and K Predictions have a historical Plus/Minus of +5.57 and a Consistency Rating of 62.6 percent on FanDuel. According to the Vegas Dashboard, the Braves have the lowest implied team total of the day at only 2.7 runs.
Dylan Bundy: Pitcher, Orioles
Syndergaard is the biggest favorite among pitchers today, but he surprisingly has only the fourth-highest K Prediction. One of the pitchers with a higher K Prediction is Bundy, who has some Statcast data working in his favor. His batted ball distance over the last 15 days is 19 feet shorter than his yearlong average, and pitchers with similar batted ball differentials, K Predictions, and salaries have historically returned solid value on FanDuel (per the Trends Tool):
One potential reason for Bundy’s strong K Prediction is that he’s facing the Rays, whose projected starting lineup has struck out in 28.5 percent of its at-bats against righties over the past 12 months. However, it also has a weighted on-base average of .307, one of the strongest marks on the slate, which probably makes Bundy best suited for guaranteed prize pools.
Matt Carpenter: First Base, Cardinals
Update: The Blue Jays-Cardinals game has been postponed due to rain Wednesday.
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Coors bats dominate the five-man stacks, with Washington and Colorado occupying the four top spots in the Bales Player Model. The highest-rated non-Coors stack belongs to the Cardinals — an intriguing stack featuring the 1-2-3-4-8 hitters:
What makes the Cardinals fascinating is that almost the entire team has suffered from bad luck to start the season. Five of their eight projected starters have Recent Batted Ball Luck scores of at least 15, and Carpenter and Dexter Fowler lead the team with scores above 60. Carpenter is also hitting the ball 263 feet over the last 15 days, and hitters with comparable batted ball distances and Recent BBL scores have a Plus/Minus of +2.57 on DraftKings. The Cardinals have one of the higher implied team totals of the day at 4.6 runs and are facing a pitcher who has allowed more then two home runs per nine innings over the last 12 months. This is as good of a spot as any for the Cards to bounce back.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
