The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The PGA Tour will play its first ever event in South Korea this week with The CJ Cup at the Nine Bridges Golf Club on Jeju Island. Once again, this is a 78-man field with no cut, so utilizing a stars-and-scrubs approach to roster construction is encouraged; finding players who will rack up points regardless of finishing position — like Grayson Murray last week — will be a key to success.
The Course
Nine Bridges will be set up as a Par 72 course playing at 7,196 yards with bentgrass surfaces. We know there are bunkers and water hazards throughout the course, but other than that we are merely speculating in terms of how the course might play, especially in a no-cut event where players tend to be more aggressive with no fear of missing out on a paycheck.
Unlike every other week, there is no data available on this track, which means I don’t have the ability to backtest all metrics within our PGA Models to find which ones have been valuable historically. Instead, we’ll put more of a focus on players this week. Pro subscribers can check out CSURAM88’s Model Preview to see which stats he’s weighting heavily this week.
The Studs
The PGA Tour Player of the Year, Justin Thomas ($12,100) disappointed about 35 percent of DFS players last weekend, as he failed to run away with the CIMB Classic and instead finished 17th with 90.0 DraftKings points. That said, Thomas currently has the highest odds to win the tournament (12.5 percent), his 68.6 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) ranks third in the field, and his 14.8 Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (LT Adj Bird Avg) is second overall. All three of these metrics have very strong correlations with actual points scored. Thomas is a DraftKings points machine: His 79.9 points per tournament (PPT) average over the past calendar year leads the field by more than three points.
Jason Day ($10,600) hasn’t played since the season-ending Tour Championship in which he finished 17th among 30 golfers. Prior to that, Day had flashed good form with three finishes of ninth or better in a span of four tournaments; his 67.8 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks fifth this week. Like Thomas, Day shows up very well in metrics that have strong correlations to DraftKings points: His 7.7 odds to win rank third, he is tied for first with his 68.2 LT Adj Rd Score, and he leads the field with a 15.0 LT Adj Bird Avg. Considering his pedestrian season last year, it may surprise you to know that Day’s 75.8 PPT over the past calendar year ranks third in this field. Bonus: Day loves putting on bentgrass greens.
Tony Finau ($10,200) has been an incredible value, producing a positive Plus/Minus in every tournament he’s played (14) since the Byron Nelson Championship. Even with a massive $11,500 salary last week, Finau posted a +37.04 Plus/Minus behind his second-place finish and 111.0 points. In his last 10 events, Finau has averaged an incredible +21.35 Plus/Minus, and he’s somehow been awarded with a $1,300 salary decrease for this week’s event.
The PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, Xander Schauffele ($9,800) is likely to be one of the top-three highest-owned golfers this week: We currently have him projected at 17-20 percent in our Models, but Hump feels like that number will be closer to 30 percent in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Schauffele is tied for first in the field with his 67.4 Recent Adj Rd Score, thanks in part to his 73.1 percent Recent Greens In Regulation (GIR) percentage and huge 18.3 Recent Adj Bird Avg. Schauffele’s robust 115.3 PPT over the past month ranks first among golfers with at least three starts during that time. Like Day, Schauffele has shown an affinity for putting on bentgrass.
The Value Plays
Stewart Cink ($7,400) has quietly put up solid DraftKings totals (89.16 PPT) in his last three tournaments at very low ownership (less than two percent in two of three tournaments). It’s likely Cink will come with an ownership discount again this week; we currently have him projected at five to eight percent in large-field GPPs. Cink is tied for 16th with his 68.7 Recent Adj Rd Score and tied for sixth with his 19.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg. Since 2014, Stewart has posted a very solid +7.89 Plus/Minus with 68.4 percent Consistency in 95 events (per the Trends tool).
Winner of the Taiwan Masters earlier this month, Gavin Green ($7,200) managed just 62.0 points and a 61st-place finish at last week’s CIMB Classic in his home of Malaysia. That said, he has flashed incredible talent on the Asian Tour and is one of the longest hitters in the field (308.5-yard LT Driving Distance); he is tied for 22nd with his 13.3 LT Adj Bird Avg. He’ll likely be very low-owned this week and is worth a shot in GPP lineups.
Patrick Rodgers ($7,200) looked solid at last week’s CIMB Classic, racking up 84.0 points behind his back-to-back rounds of 68 on the weekend. Rodgers can smash the ball off the tee: His 320.6-yard Recent Driving Distance (DD) ranks fourth overall, and he is tied for 18th this week with his 18.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg.
Over the past month, Kevin Tway ($7,000) has posted a +17.94 Plus/Minus in four events and hasn’t been owned higher than 6.5 percent in those tournaments. While Tway doesn’t always have a strong finishing position, he often makes enough birdies and eagles along the way to pay off his salaries quite comfortably. In a no-cut event with a $7,000 price tag, there is very little risk in using him.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Keegan Bradley ($9,100): Just typing his name sends me into a fear-filled TILT, but he showed up last week with a second-place finish and 129.0 points at very chalky 26.5 percent ownership. Bradley is tied for 16th with his 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score and tied for 17th with his 13.4 LT Adj Bird Avg.
Ollie Schniederjans ($8,600): He wears no hat, crushes the ball off the tee (304.1-yard LT DD), and has been making a ton of birdies lately: He is tied for 13th with his 18.3 Recent Adj Bird Avg. Ollie is tied for ninth in the field with his 27.7 Recent Adjusted Putts Per Round (Adj PPR), and if his putter stays hot he has the talent to win.
