The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The third major of 2017 is here with the British Open, which will be hosted at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. The field is loaded as usual, so let’s waste no time with pleasantries. (That was me getting into my British accent.) Let’s jump into the course and player analysis.
The Course and Conditions
Kelly McCann wrote a piece earlier this week breaking down Royal Birkdale and all of its challenges. We don’t have very much data on it since the British Open currently rotates among 10 courses; the most recent Open here was back in 2008, when Padraig Harrington won his second Open in a row. He finished at three over par and won by four strokes. The course could certainly be difficult again this week. Here’s what we do know about Royal Birkdale: It is a links course, it has narrow fairways and many punishing bunkers, and it’s considered “tough but fair,” which is a phrase you’ll likely hear many times while watching the broadcast this weekend.
We should discuss the weather. As of writing, the weather looks to be especially dire on Friday morning. We’ll talk about this more tonight on our live show; tune in via our Premium Content Portal. Because Royal Birkdale is a links course located near the northwest coast of England, it is especially susceptible to high winds; there are few trees to block the wind, which is stronger coming off the sea. As of Wednesday morning, winds should exceed 20 miles per hour throughout the tournament, and gusts should be particularly bad on Friday morning, sometimes blowing at 40-plus miles per hour. So what do we do with this information?
That’s debated by the daily fantasy golf community and, more largely, the golf analytics community. There are sites like futureoffantasy.com that have tracked players’ performances in high-wind situations and even created a “Strokes Gained: Wind” metric, but it’s difficult to correlate that metric to any other stat. For example, it makes intuitive sense that golfers with low apex heights on their tee shots — think Branden Grace or Steve Stricker — would be less affected by the wind than golfers with high apex heights like J.B. Holmes or Jason Day. That said, there’s essentially zero correlation between apex height and wind performance, as first researched by FantasyLabs friend Jake Nichols of 15thclub.com. Here’s what he found (GolfAnalytics.com):
That aligns with the data on players who have done better in the wind historically: Both Holmes and Day are among the top-five players in “SG:Wind” since 2014, and they have some of the highest ball flights on tour. So what else could it be? Wind performance could be mildly correlated with ball speed, but there’s very little data to back that up either. What about accuracy versus distance guys: Does wind give an edge to any particular type of player? Per the PGA Trends tool, here’s the baseline Plus/Minus for golfers playing with winds at 20-plus miles per hour:
And here’s how players in the top 25 percent of several long-term metrics have fared in these conditions:
- Long-Term Adjusted Round: -6.84 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Greens in Regulation: -3.69 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Driving Distance: -3.65 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: -6.58 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Scrambling: -7.87 Plus/Minus
Some player types have been slightly less negative than the baseline Plus/Minus, but there’s very little here to suggest certain players are better in the wind. We could look further at perhaps just links or accuracy courses, but overall wind seems simply to create randomness.
When there’s a lack of data or correlation as there is in this case, a good scientist should start with a healthy dose of skepticism. Is there a chance that some players are innately better at playing in the wind for whatever reason, perhaps because they’re more creative or can adapt their ball flight better? Maybe, but without any data or correlations we lack any predictive power.
So here’s my conclusion on the wind angle after way too many hours of researching this specific topic: Wind is important in that you want your golfers to avoid it. If it looks like some golfers will be more exposed to heavy gusts than others, there’s an angle worth pursuing and building lineups around; we have tee times and weather projections within Models, so you can narrow down your player pool based on those factors. But if the forecasts suggest that winds will be roughly equal for all golfers, then I’ll try to gain an edge by ignoring the wind angle altogether. Perhaps at my own peril, but at least there are other smart people who have come to similar conclusions, such as PGA Director Colin Davy, who wrote a three-part mini-series on ‘specialists,’ including wind specialists, last year.
The Studs
We discussed the highest-priced golfers (and more) on this week’s PGA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, and one thing mentioned was that the studs have close odds this week in comparison to previous majors. Last week I released Vegas Bargain Ratings for the British Open. Later this afternoon I’ll put out an updated VBR piece in which I’ll highlight the odds, but here’s the line movement over the past week for the golfers priced at $9,000 or above on DraftKings:
| Name | 713Odds | 717Odds | 718Odds | 719Odds |
| Dustin Johnson | 10.0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Jordan Spieth | 10.0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Jon Rahm | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Rory McIlroy | 7.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Sergio Garcia | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Justin Rose | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Jason Day | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| Henrik Stenson | 5.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Rickie Fowler | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.7 |
| Brooks Koepka | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth are still the favorites at 6.7 percent implied odds to win, but the difference between them and the rest of the field is much smaller. Look at the compression of the graphs from last week to this week:
It’s possible that ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) will mirror the compressed odds as they stand now, not a week ago. There will be outliers, but overall few of these guys will approach 30-plus percent ownership.
The one guy in this group who could (and probably will) approach that level is Rickie Fowler, who is extravagantly underpriced at $9,200 on DraftKings. He is playing some of the best golf of his life right now and has three top-10 finishes in his last three tournaments to go along with tons of other high finishes in 2017:
Only three of the studs above $9,000 are in the top half of Long-Term and Recent Adjusted Round (Adj Rd) and LT and Recent accuracy metrics: Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood, and Fowler. Rickie has averaged a ridiculous 78.5 fantasy points per tournament this year, and he’s hit salary-based expectations 88 percent of the time. With 6.7 percent odds to win (as of Wednesday, 7/19) he’s now tied with DJ and Spieth, and he costs a whopping $2,800 and $2,400. Given the correlation between odds, price, and ownership, Rickie should easily be the highest-owned golfer this week. Like Adam Scott at the U.S. Open, he’s probably a must-play in cash games and a must-fade in GPPs.
Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends via our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
The studs with the best tee time draws are Spieth, Fleetwood, Justin Rose, 2016 winner Henrik Stenson, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka; all of those guys are teeing off before 11 am local time. Matsuyama specifically stands out: He could low ownership among the studs, he has a nice tee time, and he comes into the British Open in excellent recent form. He finished second at the U.S. Open in June and had a top-15 outing in his only other tournament since then at the Irish Open two weeks ago. Labs friend Jake Nichols also wrote a study a couple of years ago comparing British Open golfers who played at the John Deere Classic in the States with those who played at the Scottish Open; the data suggests players already in Europe have an advantage. Matsuyama did not play in the Scottish Open, but he was here for the Irish and has had a week off to prepare for the British since.
Matsuyama leads all golfers in the field with a Recent Adj Birdie Avg of 20.5, and he trails only Brooks and Fleetwood with his Recent Adj Rd score of 67.6. He’s hit 73 percent of his recent Greens in Regulation (GIR), and he’s working with a hot putter, averaging just 28.2 Putts Per Round (PPR) over the last two tournaments. He has all the LT metrics you’d want in a golfer as well, and the difference (7.5) between his LT Birdies (15.5) and Bogeys (8.0) is the second-best mark in the field. He sets up perfectly for DFS scoring and has a lot in his favor this week.
The Value Plays
Adam Scott is yet again underpriced at $8,500 on DraftKings, as is Paul Casey. Given both their LT and Recent Adjusted Round scores, they should be incredibly popular options, especially considering how soft pricing is this week. Both players have a 68.4 LT Adj Rd, which is the eighth-best mark among all golfers this week; for reference, they have betters marks than Fowler, Koepka, and Jon Rahm, all of whom are significantly more expensive. Casey has been perhaps the most consistent golfer in DFS in 2017; over his last 10 tournaments, he’s averaged a silly +13.67 Plus/Minus on perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating:
Below those guys, there are countless of talented golfers with incredibly low price points. For reference, here’s a list of golfers (per the PGA Trends tool) who rank in the 90th percentile in both LT and Recent Adj Rd:
I couldn’t even get all the guys below $7,000 in the screenshot: Tony Finau ($6,800) and Steve Stricker ($6,900) both qualify as well. It’s ridiculous how underpriced these guys are: Matt Kuchar ($7,200), Francesco Molinari ($7,300), Daniel Berger ($6,700), and Stricker all have top-20 LT Adj Rd scores and are priced at the bottom of the salary tier. So how do we deal with this surplus talent and value?
There are two trains of thought: Either the super-talented guys like Molinari will be the super chalk or the soft pricing will lower the ownership for all of these mispriced golfers. If it’s the first one, then GPP strategy becomes clear: Play the wind and play ownership levels. Golf is a game of high variance, and no golfer is worthy of 30-plus percent ownership, especially when an alternative (like Brian Harman) could be underowned. Just consider the ownership rates at last month’s U.S. Open; because Molinari was so mispriced at $7,000, the golfers around him had almost no ownership:
Charley Hoffman was the only golfer to pay off as a pivot, scoring 87.5 fantasy points at 1.64 percent ownership in the Milly Maker, but the process matters more than the results here. If a low-owned pivot off a value chalky golfer sneaks into the top five this week, you’ll likely cash.
Some potential pivots who could pay off are Emiliano Grillo ($7,100) and Bernd Wiesberger ($7,600), both of whom are currently projected for single-digit ownership. Grillo has the much better tee time — he’s early on Thursday — and he has solid marks in GIR, DA, PPR, and even Scrambling. He’s averaged 14.4 birdies per tournament over the last year, and he’s missed only 10 percent of the cuts during that time. Wiesberger suffers from a lower 82.8 percent Field Score because he’s strictly on the Euro Tour, but his other metrics are tough to ignore: His 71.8 percent LT GIR mark is top-five among all golfers in the slate, and his Recent GIR and DA marks of 73.9 percent and 70.7 percent are excellent as well. The list of excellent pivots is almost endless this week: Pat Perez, for example, is only $6,900 and hit a slate-high 85.7 percent of his fairways in his last tournament at the U.S. Open. He has a solid 69.1 LT Adj Rd score and 0.5 odds to win, and he’s currently projected for zero to one percent ownership on DraftKings.
Again, because the field is so loaded and the pricing is so weak, it is perhaps more valuable than ever to play the ownership percentages. There are going to be discrepancies where one golfer is 30 percent owned and another is less than five percent even though they’re similar plays talents.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Kyle Stanley: He’s averaged an unreal +20.96 Plus/Minus with a 90 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 tournaments. He has a solid 69.7 LT Adj Rd score and is a great ball-striker. He’s averaged a 67.5 LT DA mark over the last year, and he’s hit 74.1 percent of fairways over the past four tournaments.
Marc Leishman: He could have lower ownership than expected given his awkward pricing at $7,800, and he’s historically performed well on links courses. Per 15thclub.com, Leishman has scored an average of 1.29 strokes better on links courses than non-links courses since 2007 — the best mark among golfers this week.
Justin Rose: He had a disappointing 70th-place finish last time here in 2008, but he’s in great form right now and has a nice tee time. He’s hit 73.6 percent of greens over his last two tournaments and is coming off a fourth-place finish at the Irish Open. He has the chops to compete in majors — he won the U.S. Open in 2013 and got second this year at the Masters — and he could actually see an ownership dip because of his disappointing MC at this year’s U.S. Open at Erin Hills.
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Good luck this week!
