The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for the main slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tonight’s main slate features 14 games and kicks off at 7 p.m. Since this is a full slate, there is an abundance of top-end talent at all positions.
Studs
Forwards
On a slate stocked with top-end defensemen, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Patrick Kane, and Nikita Kucherov are the only forwards to rank inside the top 10 of the CSURAM88 Model.
At $8,100 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel, Crosby still holds a lot of value. With a 90 percent Bargain Rating, Crosby has 11 DraftKings Pro Trends. He averages 3.39 shots per game and is playing between Jake Guentzel and Connor Sheary on Pittsburgh’s top line, which is rated at 82 tonight. Historically, players who average more than three shots per game, skate on lines rated above 80, and have an implied Vegas total greater than 3.0 goals have averaged 4.22 DraftKings points. Pittsburgh will be looking to bounce back after a 10-1 drubbing in Chicago on Thursday, and the Penguins are a sizable favorite at home against Nashville with the slate’s highest implied Vegas total at 3.4.
McDavid ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel) opened the season with a hat trick in a 3-0 win over Calgary on Wednesday night. He and the Oilers take on Vancouver as one of the biggest favorites on the slate. The top-ranked DraftKings forward in the CSURAM88 Model, McDavid has a 94 percent Bargain Rating with 10 Pro Trends. The Oilers top line holds a rating of 88.5 (second on the slate), and this could be a great spot for the Edmonton power play: The Oilers were fifth last season at 22.6 percent, while the Canucks penalty kill finished 28th at just 76 percent.
Kucherov ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) is the top-rated player on FanDuel tonight. Like Crosby, Kucherov hits on 11 Pro Trends, and his line is ranked highest in the slate at 89. Kucherov ranks above the 90th percentile in shots per game, and the Lightning have an implied total of 2.8 goals against the Panthers. Historically, players at a similar salary with these criteria have 0.46 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 55.5 percent Consistency Rating. In his game against the Panthers yesterday Kucherov scored a goal and had four shots as the Lightning skated to a 5-3 win.
Kane ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) holds the highest Bargain Rating for all players priced over $7,500 on DraftKings at 96 percent and has nine Pro Trends. Additionally, the Blackhawks are at home against the Blue Jackets, who have a quick turn around after playing against the Islanders last night. The Blackhawks have an implied total of 3.0 goals and are coming off a 10-1 win against the defending Stanley Cup champions just two nights ago. Like many of the other elite talents on this slate, Kane ranks above the 90th percentile in shots per game. Forwards who hit that metric and skate on a line rated above 80 with an implied total of 3.0 or higher have averaged 4.51 DraftKings points historically.
Defensemen
There are several elite options on defense. In fact, defensemen occupy the top four spots in the CSURAM88 Model.
Kris Letang ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) is the only defensemen with 11 Pro Trends for each platform. Letang has a high peripheral floor, as he averages 4.67 shots+blocks (SPB) per game. As stated above, the Penguins have the highest implied total tonight at 3.4 goals. Historically, defensemen playing at home with similar numbers and salary have averaged 3.78 points per game on DraftKings.
Brent Burns ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) typically possesses one of the highest peripheral floors in the league, averaging 5.65 SPB per game, which is easily the highest mark in the slate. Burns and the Sharks draw a tough matchup tonight at home against the LA Kings, who blanked the Flyers 2-0 in LA just two nights ago. That said, the potential is still there for Burns, whose Sharks enter the contest as slight favorites with an implied total of 2.7 goals.
Roman Josi ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) and the Nashville Predators get an opportunity for a little revenge against Pittsburgh in a game with a slate-high over/under of 6.0 goals. Despite being underdogs on the road, the Predators carry an implied total of 2.7 goales. Josi’s peripheral floor is high, especially since both teams in this game average over 32 shots on goal. Josi averages over 25 minutes of time on ice, and he plays on a dangerous Nashville power play, which will be looking to exploit the league’s 20th-ranked penalty kill from a year ago.
Alex Pietrangelo ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) had an enormous season debut against Pittsburgh, piling up eight shots and scoring twice, including the game-winning goal in overtime. St. Louis welcomes a Dallas team that is on the second half of a back-to-back after losing to Las Vegas last night. The Blues have an implied total of 3.0 goals, and Pietrangelo hits on nine DraftKings Pro Trends. Taking into account the implied Vegas total, his 4.33 SPB, and his salary, Pietrangelo could have a lot of value. Players in similar spots historically have had a 0.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus while averaging 3.49 points per game.
Value
Nazem Kadri ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) and the Toronto Maple Leafs face the Rangers in a game with a slate-high 6.0-goal over/under. Kadri is coming off of a two-point outing and has six DraftKings Pro Trends. Kadri is in the 93rd percentile for shots on goal per game, and he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings. Players in similar spots with comparable salaries have averaged a DraftKings Plus/Minus of 0.58 with 3.30 points per game historically. He and line mate Patrick Marleau ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) could be intriguing options for those looking to pivot away from Auston Matthews. Toronto’s second line rates slightly higher than their first, and Kadri could see a favorable matchup as the Rangers will likely shadow the Matthews line with the duo of Ryan McDonagh and Keven Shattenkirk.
One-Timers
Evander Kane ($6,100 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) fired 11 shots on goal and picked up an assist against Montreal in Buffalo’s season-opening shootout loss on Friday. Under new head coach Phil Housley, Kane will likely be a beneficiary of the Sabres’ fast and aggressive playing style with extra opportunities to take shots. He plays along Jack Eichel on the team’s second line and also sees action on the league’s top power play unit from last year. The Sabres play the Islanders, who lost 5-0 to Columbus last night.
With many highly priced defensemen on this slate, Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) is a modestly priced option in what seems to be a terrific spot. The Coyotes play the Golden Knights in their first home game, and Arizona’s implied total of 3.2 goals makes a lot of sense given the circumstances surrounding the game and the fact that the Golden Knights played on the road last night. Despite his mid-level salary, Ekman-Larsson has 10 DraftKings Pro Trends with a Bargain Rating above 80 percent and an average time on ice above 23 minutes. Historically, players matching these metrics at a similar salary have a DraftKings Plus/Minus of 0.71 and an average of 3.36 fantasy points per game with an ownership rate of 7.1 percent.
Goalies
Braden Holtby ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel) is playing at home against the Montreal Canadiens tonight. The Capitals are a decent favorite in a game with one of the lowest over/unders on the slate. Additionally, the Canadiens average over 30 shots per game, and they fired 40 shots at Robin Lehner in their season opener.
Marc-Andre Fleury ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel) stole a win for Las Vegas last night, making 45 saves while being the cheapest goaltender on the slate. He has the potential to duplicate that effort tonight, as he faces an Arizona team with significantly less firepower. The goaltenders in Las Vegas are going to see a lot of shots all season long because of their defense. If they steal wins, they will likely be one of the top plays on any given night.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
