The Vegas Report provides a quick snapshot of the year-to-date Vegas trends and their daily fantasy implications for the week’s slate of NFL games. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL Content Dashboard.
We’re two weeks (minus one Monday night game) into the NFL season. We’re right at that point where the noise starts to separate itself from the signal. With any given trend it’s hard to know right now if what we see is representative, but it’s worth diving into the data and analyzing what we find. In another two weeks we’ll know a lot more, but almost a quarter of the season will be over by then and much of the early value associated with emerging trends will be gone.
With that in mind, I’ve collected all the point spreads and game totals for Weeks 1-2 and put them next to the actual production data so we can see precisely how teams have done vis-à-vis Vegas to this point in the season.
Vegas Plus/Minus
I’ve created a Vegas Plus/Minus metric — similar to our proprietary daily fantasy Plus/Minus metric — that compares actual production with expected (or implied) production. For instance, the Cardinals (based on the over/unders and point spreads) were implied for an average of 25.5 points per game (PPG) in Weeks 1-2, but they scored only 19.5 PPG, resulting in a Vegas Plus/Minus of -6.0. Additionally, they failed to hit their Vegas-implied expectations in both weeks, giving them two implied ‘losses’ on the year.
This data highlights just how substandard overall production has been so far. Thirteen teams (of a possible 28) have failed to hit their implied point totals in both weeks. In contrast, only three teams have hit their implied totals in both weeks:
- Ravens
- Chiefs
- Raiders
The Ravens so far have been gifted cupcake matchups with the Bengals and Browns, and they barely have a positive Vegas Plus/Minus. The market seems to have a good idea of who the Ravens are, although the possible ascendance of Javorius Allen could give the team some hidden upside. The Chiefs and Raiders are two of the three highest-scoring teams, so we should expect to see them with 2-0 implied records. Neither team has had an easy schedule, so although we should expect regression it’s possible they will continue to outproduce Vegas expectations for some time, just as the Falcons did last year.
Offensively, both teams have reasons for their improvement and outperformance: Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is in his fourth year and continuing to develop. Specifically, he is in his third year with new offensive coordinator (former quarterbacks coach) Todd Downing as well as the wide receiver duo of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. And Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith is playing more aggressively and pushing the ball farther downfield. It’s possible that the selection of Patrick Mahomes in the draft has given Smith the YOLO willingness take more risks in targeting Tyreek Hill, who has transitioned from gadget player to full-time receiver. Additionally, both teams have new power running backs in rookie Kareem Hunt and unretiree Marshawn Lynch, who have improved the rushing attacks considerably.
Among the slew of teams with implied records of 0-2, a few stand out. The Bengals and Seahawks have massively underperformed expectations, so much so that Cincy has already fired its offensive coordinator. The Bengals and Seahawks entered the season with Pro Football Focus’ worst offensive lines. We should expect some progression from these teams given their talented offensive skill players, but they will probably continue to struggle for some time.
The Colts, Texans, and Bears are also notable. They’re all dealing with quarterback issues. The Colts have been sabotaged by Andrew Luck‘s shoulder injury, and he could still be weeks away from playing. The Texans and Bears kicked off the season with make-believe veterans Tom Savage and Mike Glennon as the starters and rookies Deshaun Watson and Mitchell Trubisky as the backups. Whoever quarterbacks these teams, they’re unlikely to impress.
Over/Under
Offensive production within an NFL contest is often correlated across teams. As a result, many sharp DFS players stack games (instead of just teams) in guaranteed prize pools. To highlight teams that tend to play in games that hit or surpass the Vegas total, I’ve created an Over/Under Differential metric: The actual total of games minus their over/unders. As an example: The Cardinals had an average Vegas total of 46.25 PPG in Weeks 1-2, but their games actually totaled only 43.5 PPG. Thus, they have an Over/Under Differential of -2.75. On the season, however, they’re 1-1-0 in terms of hitting the over on account of their 58-point Week 1 shootout with the Lions.
Five teams are currently 2-0-0 on the over:
- Broncos
- Chiefs
- Rams
- Patriots
- Saints
Those first three teams have surprised people with their offensive performances. With their strong defenses, the Broncos, Chiefs, and Rams are likely to put some numbers in the under column soon. The Patriots and Saints, though, have routinely been two of the highest-scoring teams of the last decade, and both this season have experienced some defensive difficulties (which were not unexpected; see the Patriots preview and Saints preview for more). Both of those teams (especially the Saints) could be in for a season of shootouts.
Ten teams are 0-2-0 on the under. A number of these pair good-to-great defenses with mediocre-to-bad offenses. As the market continues to adjust, it’s not unreasonable to expect many more unders from this decatet of fantasy desolation.
Point Spread
The spread is the go-to number for Vegas and DFS, as it is predictive of game script and outcome. As a result I’ve created a Spread Differential metric so we can see how teams have done on a PPG basis relative to the spread. The Cardinals in Weeks 1-2 were -4.75 favorites on average, but this season their opponents have outscored them by 4.5 PPG. As a result, they have a woeful -9.25 Spread Differential and are 0-2-0 against the spread (ATS).
There are four teams that are 2-0-0 ATS:
- Bills
- Raiders
- Chiefs
- Ravens
We’ve touched already on the last three. The Bills are intriguing. Despite trading away wide receiver Sammy Watkins and cornerback Ronald Darby shortly before the season started, it seems as if the Bills are playing to win. They’re not good — but they’re playing. In Week 1 they covered at home as 7.0-point favorites over the Jets, who are bad, but it’s doubtful the Bills should be laying a touchdown to any NFL team. And then in Week 2 they covered as 6.5-point road underdogs against a tough Panthers team even though the Bills scored only three points and managed just 176 yards of offense. Again, the Bills aren’t good, but through Weeks 1-2 they’ve shown themselves to be a hard-nosed team that might stay in games as the season progresses and provide some backdoor covers and unexpected (and low-owned) fantasy production.
There are five teams that are 0-2-0 ATS:
- Bengals
- Cardinals
- Saints
- Seahawks
- Jets
The first four teams entered the season with high expectations; the fifth team, with no expectations. They’ve all massively underperformed to this point. The Bengals and Saints are in turmoil at 0-2. Both teams are unlikely to make the playoffs, and both have longtime head coaches who have underperformed in recent years. The Cardinals and Seahawks at 1-1 are still in the running to win the NFC West, but neither team has looked like a division champ through two games.
The 2017 Jets might be the worst team of all time. If they went 0-16 ATS, would anyone be surprised? At least next year they’ll have a first-round rookie quarterback from Southern California leading them into the future. That worked well with Mark Sanchez.
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For fantasy insight on the weekly market, read Ben Gretch’s Deconstructing the Vegas Betting Lines (out on Fri./Sat.).
