The Briefest of Introductions
The NFL conference championships are today. Congratulations, you’ve made it. You’re grinding a two-game slate. You’re a degenerate.
That’s a compliment.
Congratulations, really.
Another Introduction
Two weeks ago I wrote a piece on everything there is to know about the wild card weekend.
Last week I wrote about everything there is to know about the divisional playoffs.
This current piece is this week’s version of those previous posts.
The 2016-17 NFL Conference Championships
Here are the games for this year’s NFL conference championships:
NFC
• Sun., 3:05 PM ET: No. 4 Packers (10-6) at No. 2 Falcons (11-5)
AFC
• Sun., 6:40 PM ET: No. 3 Steelers (11-5) at No. 1 Patriots (14-2)
Let’s get it on.
The Data Set
We have 14 years of data under the current format.
I looked at data going all the way back to 1990, when the NFL expanded the playoffs from 10 to 12 teams, but I opted not to include data before the year 2002, when the NFL realigned from three divisions per conference to four.
With the 2002 realignment the composition of the NFL playoffs changed. Previously, there were three division champions and three wild card teams per conference. (Now there are four division champs and two wild cards per conference.) My belief is that the former 3/3 breakdown was sufficiently different from the current 4/2 breakdown to warrant non-inclusion.
As an example: In the last 14 years we’ve never had a team in the conference championships host another team with more wins — but that did happen in the 1997-98 AFC Conference Championship when the AFC Central champion Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) hosted the wild card Denver Broncos (12-4). With fewer division champs and more wild cards, the NFL playoffs from 1990 to 2001 were just a little less ‘data valuable.’
Anyway, that means that we’re using data going back to only 2002. At two games per year, we have 28 games.
The sample is small, which means that we shouldn’t take anything coming from this data too seriously.
As always, it’s possible that the data I’m about to spew at you is more descriptive than predictive. It’s for you to determine how to incorporate the data into your decision-making process.
The Conference Championships: The Data
I’m about to drop some data on you like it’s hot.
Over/Under
Over the last 14 years, the average over/under for a conference championship game has been 43.95 points. I’m looking at our Vegas page right now, and I see that the live over/under average for this weekend’s games is 55.25. Hot d*mn! Get ready. [Caveat: Later I’m going to say something that totally contradicts what I just said. Get ready.]
Here’s the best part of the conference championships: The average final game total has historically exceeded the Vegas over/under by 2.45 points. The over has been hit 57.14 percent of the time over the last 14 years. On the one hand, that’s a fairly high percentage. On the other hand, remember that the sample is small.
Home/Road
This weekend, we have division winners who received playoff byes hosting division winners who had to play during wild card weekend. That none of these teams are wild cards means that the home teams — the teams that have played one less game this season — must have the superior records.
Here are two historical facts:
- The home teams in the conference championships have been No. 1 or No. 2 seeds in 92.86 percent of all instances.
- The home teams have been favored 82.14 percent of the time.
Those facts probably aren’t surprising. This week we have the No. 1 seed hosting the No. 3 seed in the AFC and the the No. 2 seed hosting the No. 4 seed in the NFC. Right now the home teams are both favored by six points.
Division/Non-Division
Under the current four-division playoff format, we only occasionally get divisional rematches in the conference championships. It’s happened only three times.
Bottom line: Just 10.71 percent of the time do have divisional matchups in a conference championship game.
Both of this weekend’s games are non-divisional contests.
Sometimes, through sheer randomness, conference championship opponents have played each other previously during the regular season — even though they’re not in the same division. It’s not common, but it’s also not uncommon. It happens.
This year, it’s the norm. Both matchups are rematches:
NFC
• Week 8: Packers at Falcons – Falcons win 33-32
AFC
• Week 7: Patriots at Steelers – Patriots win 27-16
We shouldn’t put too much stock in the predictiveness of these previous games — but they still have significance.
For instance, we should keep in mind that, even though the Falcons are six-point home favorites, they’ve already failed to cover against the visiting Packers once this year — and the Falcons, with their league-high 33.8 points per game, have covered 64.7 percent of the time this year. Also, it’s probably worth knowing that in Week 8 the Falcons and Packers hit the over — just as the Falcons and all the teams they’ve played this year have done on all occasions except for three.
And we should keep in mind that, even though they’re ‘just’ six-point favorites at home, the Pats have already beaten the Steelers by double-digit points on the road, easily covering the spread — as they’ve done 14 times this year. Of course, that Week 7 game also hit the under, which Pats games have done 10 times this season.
Again, we shouldn’t read too much into two random non-divisional games that occurred in the first half of the season — but that those games were played means that this weekend’s contests will feature teams that are somewhat familiar with each other.
Thus, this weekend’s four games in quality are on the spectrum between divisional and non-divisional matchups. They’re not divisional games: The teams aren’t familiar with each other the way division rivals are. They don’t hate each other the way division rivals do.
But these games also aren’t ‘pure’ non-divisional games. After this weekend, the Falcons will have played the Packers the same number of times they’ve played the Saints, Buccaneers, and Panthers this season. So these aren’t divisional games — but they could be rivalry games in formation.
Non-Divisional Home Favorites
Over the last 14 years, 21 of the 28 conference championships have featured a favorite hosting a non-divisional opponent. That’s what we have this year.
In this situation, the home team has been a top-two seed 95.24 percent of the time; the road team, 42.86 percent. The home team has historically won 12.9 games in the regular season; the visiting team, 11.1. The over/under has been exceeded by an average of 1.76 points. The over has been hit 57.14 percent of the time.
The spread has been an average of 5.67 points, which is comparable to what we have this weekend. The home team has been implied to score 25.10 points; the road team, only 19.43. The home team has exceeded the Vegas total by 1.57 points, hitting its implied total in 57.14 percent of games.
The road team hasn’t been quite as good, averaging only 0.19 points more than its Vegas total and hitting its implied total only 52.38 percent of the time.
In these matchups, the Vegas value has been with the home favorites.
For the purposes of daily fantasy football, none of this takes into account the salaries for this week — but in terms of Vegas valuations the home favorites have been superior investments.
The Patriots and the Falcons: Historically, their precursors have provided superior value in the conference championships.
No. 1/2 vs. No. 3/4: Non-Divisional Home Favorites
This year, we have top-two seeds playing as home favorites against non-divisional opponents who won their divisions but still had to play on wild card weekend.
Over the last 14 years, what has happened in this scenario?
- The sample is small: Just six games.
- The sample is probably unrepresentative (sort of): Four of these games were hosted by the Patriots.
So the data might be unreliable. At the same time, it might be extremely reliable for the PIT-NE game.
In short, the data is horrible.
The over/under has been 45.25. The final total has been 36.33 points. That’s a differential of -8.92 points! Not once has the over been hit.
On average the home team has fallen short of its implied Vegas total by 5.29 points, hitting the total just 33.3 percent of the time. The road team: Short by 3.63 points, hitting the implied total just 33.3 percent of the time.
The underdog has covered 66.7 percent of these games.
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I don’t know what the f*ck to say except I think that the larger trend of non-divisional home favorites is more important than this micro Pats-skewed trend — or at least it’s probably more important for the GB-ATL game. For the PIT-NE game? Maybe not.
There could be some non-Pats narrative that explains why games look so sh*tty when No. 1/2 seeds play as favorites against No. 3/4 seeds in conference championships — but in general I believe (based on combing through the data) that we should prioritize the 28-game sample to the six-game sample — and, remember, we shouldn’t be giving all that much priority to the 28-game sample in the first place.
The Patriots, Steelers, and Packers: Conference Championship Veterans
Over the last 14 years, the Patriots — with Tom Brady as the quarterback and Bill Belichick as the head coach — have played in the AFC Conference Championship nine times.
For that matter, the Steelers have been to the AFC Conference Championship four times with QB Ben Roethlisberger. And the Packers three times with QB Aaron Rodgers (and former head coach Mike McCarthy).
These teams don’t just skew the sample. They are the sample. OK, that’s dramatic. These three teams/QBs are 28.6 percent of the sample. That’s really high for three teams/guys.
If you look at the data, you’ll notice quickly that these games tend to be frequented by the dynastic-ish franchises of the last decade and a half. That makes sense. That’s how teams become dynastic-ish in the first place. In addition to the Patriots, Steelers, and Packers are these teams/individuals:
• The Broncos/Colts: Five games with QB Peyton Manning and whoever was pretending to be his HC
• The Eagles: Four games with HC Andy Reid and QB Donovan McNabb
• The 49ers: Three games with HC Jim Harbaugh and whoever was pretending to be his QB
• The Ravens: Three games with HC John Harbaugh and whoever is still pretending to be his QB
• The Saints: Two games with QB Drew Brees and HC Sean Payton
• The Seahawks: Two games with QB Russell Wilson and HC Pete Carroll
• The Giants: Two games with the Pat-slayin’ QB Eli Manning and HC Tom Coughlin
• The Panthers: Two games with HC John Fox and QB Jake Delhomme
• The Bears: Two games with HC Lovie Smith and QBs Rex Grossman and Jay Cutler
The point is that the conference championships tend to feature the same teams, QBs, and coaches. As a result, what we see in the 14-year history of the modern conference championship might have less to do with the dynamics of the game itself and more to do with the tendencies of a small cohort of subjects.
The Patriots
As already stated, the Pats have been in nine AFC Conference Championship games over the last 14 years. Only once in that time have they not been a top-two seed. On average, they’ve had 13-3 records when they’ve made the game.
The average over/under for a Pats conference championship game has been 47.56 points. On average, the final total has fallen short of this mark by only 0.11 points — but the over has been hit in only 22.2 percent of games.
In those nine games, the Pats have (on average) been favored by 4.11 points. They’ve been implied to score 25.83 points and have actually scored 26.11 points — but they’ve still hit their implied total only 44.4 percent and covered only 33.3 percent of the time.
Here we have a divergence of averages and frequencies in NFL scoring. In these situations, the Pats sometimes markedly exceed their total — but more often than not they underperform.
In the five games they’ve hosted — all but one of which they’ve won — the Pats have always been favored. They’ve been implied to score 28.25 points but have scored only 25.2. That sucks — but their opponents have had it much worse, implied to score 20.45 points and managing only 16.2.
Not once has the over been hit when the Pats have hosted this game.
That doesn’t look good for the Pats or the Steelers, and yet . . . just maybe . . .
The Steelers
Four times the Steelers have played in the AFC Championship game with Roethlisberger — twice with Tomlin and twice with his predecessor Bill Cowher. Three of these games have been at home.
Because half of the sample involves a non-current coach and a supermajority of the sample has the Steelers at home, it’s questionable whether this sample has any value at all.
Still — the data is intriguing.
The Roethlisberger-led Steelers have on average been implied to score 19.31 points in AFC Conference Championships. They’ve averaged 27 points. Not once have they failed to hit their implied total.
Again — I feel the need to remind you that this sample is small and potentially unrepresentative. Also, let’s not forget that three of these games were played at home, where Roethlisberger is one of the best QBs in the league. On the road, however, as I’ve mentioned repeatedly in the QB Breakdown, Roethlisberger has traditionally been horrifying.
The Packers
Every two to four years, when he’s not killing his team with conservative play calling — which I like to call “McCarthyism” — the Green Bay HC allows A-Rod to lead the Packers to the NFC Conference Championship. This is one of those years.
The Packers — despite being an exciting team — haven’t excited in their three NFC Conference Championship appearances in the Rodgers-McCarthy era. They’ve covered the spread in two of the games, but have hit their implied total only once. They’ve been implied to score 21.92 points but have averaged only 21.0, never scoring more than 22.
It’s not that the Packers have been awful in these games. It’s just that they’ve looked like a team coached by the man whose team is coached by him.
If a snake is hungry enough, it will eat its own tail.
The Falcons?
Only once in the Matt Ryan era have the Falcons been in the NFC Conference Championship — but they had a different coaching staff and basically a different team. That game was just a little over four years ago.
The information from that game might be worse than useless — it could be dangerous in the hands of a moron — but it might be worth considering.
That year, the Falcons were a top-two seed. They were seventh in scoring. Ryan was a Pro-Bowl QB, leading the league in completion percentage. Wide receiver Julio Jones was a Pro-Bowler, emerging as one of the NFL’s best players in his second season.
The Falcons played that game at home. They were actually one of the rare home underdogs of the last 14 years. The game hit the over, and the Falcons hit their implied total — as they frequently have this season. The Falcons covered. As Ryan did last week, he completed over 70 percent of his passes for well over 300 yards and three touchdowns. The Falcons lost to Harbaugh’s high-flying 49ers 24-28.
We shouldn’t read too much into what Ryan and the Falcons did four years ago — but it’s nice to know that in his last two trips to the playoffs Ryan has helped his team reach its implied total in all three games as he’s passed for an average of 328 yards and three TDs per contest.
Who Wins?
When the home team is favored, it has historically won 73.91 percent of the time. That’s not a surprise. The odds are that we’ll have a Pats-Falcons Super Bowl.
What Does All of This Mean?
What follows are the opinions I have formed based on the data I’ve perused. That’s it. Again, this data could very well be unrepresentative.
What do I think this data means?
- Maybe we’ll have a good weekend of football?
- Because all of these games are rematches, the scoring might be a little lower than it otherwise would’ve been.
- If I were forced to pick one game to hit the over and one the under, I’d easily pick Packers-Falcons for the over and Steelers-Patriots for the under. It’s probably not a coincidence that my pick for the over is the game being played in a dome in January and not the one being played outside in the Northeast.
- I would be cautious about the Patriots. If I had to pay up for a player on a favored team, he probably wouldn’t be a Pat.
- The Steelers in general are subpar on the road, they have the lowest Vegas total in the slate, and the Patriots at home have destroyed opposing offenses when they are just one game away from the Super Bbowl — but the Steelers’ history in AFC Championship games is intriguing. Tentatively, I think that some contrarianism is in order. Not extreme contrarianism. Just slight contrarianism.
- The Packers this year look like the Packers of 2014-15, 2010-11, and 2007-08 — except that they have a WR playing running back and three key WRs playing through injuries.
- The Falcons are a high-scoring team in a good spot playing in their home stadium for the last time ever against a team with an exploitable defense and shootout-lovin’ QB. All the Falcons in all the lineups: The onslaught is on — but that’s just my opinion.
Good luck this weekend!
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