The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a three-game slate starting at 3:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
If the first two games of the year are any indication, Russell Westbrook is not going to be nearly as aggressive looking for his own offense this season. He’s maintained strong peripheral statistics, averaging 12.5 assists and 11.5 rebounds per game, but he’s attempted just 23 total shots over that time frame. To put that in perspective, he attempted at least 23 shots in a single game in more than 40 games last season. His current usage rate of 26.9 percent would be the lowest season mark since his second year in the league.
Today, he’s taking on a Minnesota Timberwolves team that currently ranks 27th in the league in pace. Making matters worse, this is the second leg of a back-to-back for Westbrook, who has historically ‘struggled’ in similar situations:
His numbers get even worse when looking specifically at games at home, dropping the Plus/Minus to -3.81. Westbrook remains the highest-priced player on both sites, but he’s yet to show he’s worthy of that price tag in cash games this season.
Dennis Schroder gets the Brooklyn Nets, which already seems like one of the best fantasy matchups this year. Their current pace of 113.0 possessions per game would beat last year’s first-place mark by over 10 possessions, and their defensive efficiency of 116.2 ranks 29th among the 30 teams. Brooklyn was also shredded by PGs who were projected for at least 20 fantasy points last season:
Schroder has a massive usage rate of 34.6 percent through the Hawks’ first two games and has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel.
Value
Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins have posted a combined usage rate of 68 percent this season, which hasn’t left much offense available for the rest of the team. Jrue Holiday has taken a large hit, averaging just 22.5 fantasy points on DraftKings through his first two games. Today’s matchup against the Lakers could be a spot for him to get right, however. The Lakers have played at an average of 115.3 possessions per game for their first two contests – a faster pace than even the Nets – and the Lakers allowed the eighth-highest Plus/Minus to opposing PGs last season. Holiday’s $5,900 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
No point guard has a better individual matchup today than D’Angelo Russell. Schroder posted the sixth-worst Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) among qualified PGs last season, and no team allowed a higher Plus/Minus to opposing PGs last year than the Atlanta Hawks. The Nets’ implied team total of 111 points ranks second on today’s slate.
Lonzo Ball played almost 38 minutes in his second game of the season and responded by scoring 29 points and flirting with a triple-double. He does have a brutal matchup today against Holiday, who was third in the league last season in DRPM among PGs.
Spencer Dinwiddie saw 25 minutes of court time in his last game and responded with a Plus/Minus of +17.45 on FanDuel. He will likely to continue to handle a solid handful of minutes after the injury to Jeremy Lin. He’s currently projected for minimal ownership in our NBA Models.
Shooting Guard
Stud
There is no true ‘stud’ SG on today’s slate: Andrew Wiggins leads FanDuel with a $6,300 price tag, while Jimmy Butler is the highest-priced SG on DraftKings at $7,400. Both players have yet to really find their groove in Minnesota this season, which is not all that surprising given the amount of weighted usage they added to their roster in the offseason. Butler in particular has sacrificed a lot of his game this season: His current usage rate of 20.6 percent ranks just fifth on the team. Wiggins has maintained his strong usage percentage from last season and has scored the ball at his usual rate, but his lack of peripherals continue to plague his fantasy production. He’s grabbed 10 total rebounds and handed just one assist, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -2.13 on FanDuel despite averaging 23.5 points per game. The Wolves have had two brutal defensive matchups to start the season against the Spurs and Jazz, but they’re not getting much of a reprieve today against the Oklahoma City Thunder; the Wolves’ current implied team total of 103.75 is the lowest mark on the slate by a margin of 4.0 points.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has a salary of just $4,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He figures to step right into the starting lineup and should benefit from the breakneck pace of the Lakers offense.
Fast Break
E’Twaun Moore has averaged 29.5 minutes per game through the Pelicans’ first two games and is priced at just $4,100 on FanDuel. The Pelicans’ implied team total of 113.5 points ranks first on the slate, and cheap SGs projected for at least 25 minutes of court time have historically fared well with comparable Vegas implications:
Caris LeVert is never a lock to play heavy minutes thanks to the ever-changing rotations of head coach Kenny Atkinson, but his average of 0.78 fantasy points per minute ranks fourth among today’s SGs. He has particularly high upside on FanDuel thanks to his defensive capabilities: He’s averaged 2.6 steals and 1.3 blocks per 36 minutes so far this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George has been an excellent fit so far in Oklahoma City, playing at least 38 minutes in each of his first two games and scoring at least 40 fantasy points on FanDuel. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends and a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the past year. Paying up for George offers some security at a position with a lack of strong options today.
Value
Taurean Prince has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.88 on FanDuel through his first two games this season. He averaged 0.75 fantasy points per minute last season and upped his minute count to 29 in his last start. He has one of the tougher individual matchups for the Hawks today against DeMarre Carroll, although Carroll’s defensive effect is likely mitigated for DFS purposes if the Nets are going to routinely play in games with over 100 possessions.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram played 37 minutes in his last game and contributed a Plus/Minus of +7.09 on FanDuel. His Upside Rating of 60 percent is the highest among all of today’s players at the SF position.
Power Forward
Stud
The pairing of Anthony Davis and Cousins is going to be an interesting dynamic throughout the course of the season. Cousins has a significant edge in usage rate so far – 36.2 percent vs. 31.8 percent – but it’s nowhere near as bad as the split last season. Davis has also managed to increase both his rebound and assist percentages and remains a major threat on the defensive end of the court. Facing the Lakers has also historically been one of his favorite matchups:
He’s averaged 40 minutes a night so far this season and leads all players on today’s slate with a projected ceiling of 76.8 FanDuel points.
Value
Larry Nance Jr. has been seeing the bulk of the minutes at PF for the Lakers this season and has historically averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute. He could potentially see even more minutes today with the Lakers having to contend with the dual big lineups of the New Orleans Pelicans, and Nance was among the best defensive PFs in the league last season with a DRPM of +2.16.
Fast Break
So far, playing with the Thunder has done little to hurt the offensive game of Carmelo Anthony. He’s currently averaging a career-high 23 shot attempts per night and leads the Big 3 for the Thunder in usage when all three are sharing the court:
He faces a stiff test today against Taj Gibson, who finished 13th among qualified PFs with a DRPM of +2.02 last season, but Carmelo should still be able to operate on the perimeter.
Trevor Booker has not played many minutes so far this season, but that hasn’t stopped him from recording a double-double in each of the Nets’ first two games:
His current usage rate of 23.9 percent ranks second on the team, and his 22.7 percent rebound rate is first. He can do a lot of damage in a short period of time.
Center
Studs
DeMarcus Cousins has been an absolute monster to start the season, going for at least 60 fantasy points on FanDuel in each of his first two games:
Despite sharing the court with Davis, Cousins currently leads the league with a usage rate of 36.2 percent. He’s also posted strong contributions in the defensive categories, going for a combined 11 blocks + steals over his first two games. His individual matchup today against Brook Lopez could hurt his rebounding numbers a bit, but Cousins has been rebounding the ball at a below-average rate anyway this season: His current rebound rate of 16.6 percent would be the lowest mark of his career. Lopez has been a below-average defender, ranking 46th among 60 qualifiers in DRPM at the center position last season, so Cousins should be able to take advantage of him on that end of the court.
One interesting strategy could be pairing the two New Orleans big men together in the same lineup. They’ve had combined ownership levels of just 1.61 percent and 0.32 percent in their first two games, and they have shown the ability to post big games in the same contests.
Speaking of Lopez, his current DraftKings salary of $6,200 results in a position-high Bargain Rating of 99 percent today. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.07 through the Lakers’ first two games and has posted a Consistency Rating of 88 percent over the past year. He’s a terrible rebounder for a center – his current rebound rate of 13.2 percent trails Ball’s, for reference – but he makes up for it by ranking second on the team in field goal attempts per game.
Value
Dewayne Dedmon has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games on DraftKings and gets to face a Nets team that has been absolutely destroyed by opposing centers so far this season:
That’s obviously a small sample size, but, given the pace the Nets have played at this season, it’s not unreasonable to think that they’ll be poor against most positions for the duration of the season.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns has yet to deliver a big game this season, but that will happen when you face the Spurs and Jazz in your first two games. That being said, there are a few concerns today as well. First, he’s averaged just 33.5 minutes per game through his first two starts, which is a decrease of roughly 3.5 minutes per game from last year. Second, his usage rate of 22.8 percent is a decrease of roughly five percent from last year and would be the lowest mark of his career. It’s still early in the year and KAT is too great a talent to not figure it out, but there were always likely to be growing pains for the new lineup in Minnesota.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
