This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB pitcher strikeout over/under props.
Dinelson Lamet – Over/Under 5.0 Strikeouts
Lamet has been an up-and-down proposition so far this season, but he has excelled at striking out batters. On a slate with Chris Sale, Robbie Ray, and Lance McCullers, Lamet’s 12-month K/9 of 12.16 ranks first, and he’s managed to strike out 50 batters through his first 37 innings this season:
Lamet has failed to hit five strikeouts only once this season, and it was a start in which he went only three innings at the extremely hitter-friendly Chase Field. His matchup today against the Indians is mediocre — their projected lineup has a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 25.7 percent — but he is coming off arguably his best start of the season. With a K Prediction of 7.7 in our Models, he should be able to clear the over relatively easily as long as he doesn’t get knocked out early. The over odds of -125 are reasonable considering how often he’s gone over five strikeouts this season.
Lance McCullers – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts
McCullers has been good recently with an average Plus/Minus of +4.48 on DraftKings over his last 10 starts, and he has posted at least six strikeouts in five straight starts. His two recent starts came after a short stint on the disabled list, and his recent average pitch count of 86 makes the strikeout totals in those games even more impressive. He did up his count to 96 pitches in his last start after throwing only 76 pitches in his first outing off the DL, so there’s reason to believe he could continue to increase his total going forward.
Today he takes on the Blue Jays, who have a mediocre K rate (20.7 percent) and wOBA (.311) against right-handed pitching so far this season. His K Prediction of 7.9 ranks third on the main slate. The odds opened at -105 but have moved to -130.
Chris Sale – Over/Under 10 Strikeouts
Sale has been the preeminent strikeout pitcher in baseball this season, leading the league with 166 strikeouts through his first 17 starts. Today’s matchup against the Rays should be an elite one for him: Their strikeout rate of 26.5 percent against southpaws is the second-worst mark in the league. In two previous meetings with the Rays earlier this season, Sale managed to record 12 strikeouts in each of them.
However, 10 strikeouts is a huge number, and our current K Prediction of 9.2 puts him under that mark. Despite posting double-digit strikeouts in eight of his first nine starts, he’s failed to hit that threshold in five of his eight most recent outings. When Sale hasn’t been striking batters out recently, he hasn’t exactly been dominant either: His batted ball distance of 229 feet and Recent Batted Ball Luck of -94 are terrifying. If the Rays can put the ball in play against Sale in today’s matchup, he could be due for some regression. Of course, Sale can post a huge strikeout total in any start, but given his recent performance and strong +110 odds on the under, it might be worth a small wager.
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