There is a lone day game at 2:10pm ET. The other 14 games are included in the 7:05pm main slates. Let’s jump in.
Cubs ace Jake Arrieta is coming off an absolute gem against the rival Cardinals: He struck out 10 batters and allowed zero runs in seven innings pitched — a 63-point FD outing. As expected, his recent advanced stats are excellent: In his last two games, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 183 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 22 percent. Today he faces a Pirates team on the road (Park Factor of 92) currently implied by Vegas for 3.4 runs. His 7.1 K Prediction is the second-highest mark of the day. He should be highly owned.
Rangers southpaw Cole Hamels faces a Brewers team currently implied for 3.7 runs. Milwaukee is a good team to target: The Brewers’ projected lineup owns the sixth-lowest team Weighted On-Base Average (.296) and highest SO/AB rate (.311). Hamels had a nice bounceback game last outing but had been struggling quite a bit prior:
Given his previous struggles, his advanced stats are pretty awful: In his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 235 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 41 percent. This is a really nice matchup for Hamels and he possesses a ton of upside, but there’s also downside given his recent form and advanced stats. Perhaps reserve him as an Arrieta pivot in guaranteed prize pools.
Dodgers righty Jose De Leon was initially scheduled to start yesterday against the Padres, but he was swapped in the rotation with Kenta Maeda and will instead pitch tonight. His opponent and data are pretty much the same as they were yesterday: The Padres are currently implied for 3.5 runs and he’s a decent -164 favorite. He has only a few starts to his MLB career and none in the last two weeks, but this is a really nice matchup: The Padres’ projected lineup owns the worst team wOBA in the slate at .178. There’s risk here, but at only $7,400 he’s worth a couple darts in tournaments.
Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez faces a Diamondbacks squad currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s been way up and down lately . . .
. . . but you wouldn’t realize that if you looked solely at his recent advanced stats. They’re incredible: In his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 198 feet, an exit velocity of 88 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 15 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 18 percent — and he’s induced ground balls at a 62 percent clip. He also boasts the slate’s highest K Prediction at 7.5. However — and it’s a big however — the weather is supposed to be awful in Washington, D.C. tonight. There is a flash flood warning and there’s a high chance of precipitation negatively impacting pitchers. Definitely monitor that situation as lineup lock approaches.
Giants righty Jeff Samardzija faces a Rockies team currently implied for 3.2 runs, the lowest total on the slate. Samardzija is coming off a gem in which he struck out nine batters and allowed four hits and no runs in seven innings pitched — a 60-point FD outing. His advanced stats are also incredible: In his last two games, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 168 feet, an exit velocity of 86 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 20 percent, and he’s induced ground balls at a 64 percent clip. He doesn’t possess a ton of K upside (K Prediction of 4.9), but he is pitching at home (perfect Park Factor of 100) and is a nice -181 favorite. He provides a lot of safety, especially at DraftKings where he is $8,900 and owns a 63 percent Bargain Rating.
Atlanta righty Michael Foltynewicz has been a punchline at times in the past, but he was actually solid in his last couple of starts (in terms of Plus/Minus) before sitting out a couple weeks after getting hit in the leg by a line drive:
Today he gets a nice matchup against a Phillies team that is currently implied for 4.0 runs and whose projected lineup owns the slate’s third-lowest team wOBA at .284. We don’t have recent data on Folty because of his three-week absence due to the leg injury. For that reason, and his historical struggles — he owns the sixth-highest HR/9 rate in the slate (1.414) — he should be used only in tournaments. However, given his low price tag ($7,500 on FD) and probable low ownership, he’s worth a GPP dart.
The highest-rated five-man DK stack (per the CSURAM88 Model) is a 1-2-3-4-7 stack of the Red Sox.
They are currently implied to score 5.3 runs and face Yankees righty Bryan Mitchell, who owns the slate’s worst WHIP at 1.907. The best Park Factor for hitters in today’s slate belongs to lefties at Yankee Stadium. This stack with David Ortiz and Jackie Bradley possesses a ton of upside.
After the Red Sox, the highest-rated four-man FD stack is a 1-2-3-8 stack of the Dodgers:
The Dodgers are currently implied to score 4.6 runs.
Several Nationals batters, specifically Trea Turner and Stephen Drew, rate highly in today’s models. Given the bad weather, however, I’m going to exclude them here. As said above, monitor that situation as lock approaches and determine how much exposure you feel comfortable with in tournaments. Definitely don’t use them in cash games.
Catcher Gary Sanchez is projected to bat third for a Yankees team currently implied for 4.3 runs. He has awesome splits versus righties this year: He has a .483 wOBA, .388 Isolated Power, and .754 slugging percentage. After coming back down to earth a bit after a sizzling-hot start to his career, he’s back to cooking: In his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 229 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 44 percent. He is $3,900 on FD and owns a 93 percent Bargain Rating there. Given the Yankees’ low implied total, he could be a bit lower-owned than he should be.
If you’re playing the all-day slate, look at outfielder George Springer. He’s batting leadoff for an Astros team currently implied for 4.3 runs. He’s on the good side of his splits facing a lefty: He boasts a .422 wOBA, .298 ISO, and .595 slugging percentage in the last year against them. He’s been scorching-hot lately: In his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 240 feet, an exit velocity of 94 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 41 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 50 percent. He should be low-owned, too.
Speaking of a guy with a really hot bat right now: Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera is coming off an impressive 47.9-point FD game. And per his advanced stats, that wasn’t an outlier: In his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 229 feet, an exit velocity of 95 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 38 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 48 percent. He doesn’t have extreme splits against either hand and faces a righty today: He owns a .395 wOBA, .243 ISO, and .558 slugging percentage against them in the last year. He’s currently projected to bat third for a Tigers team implied for 4.6 runs. He’s only $3,900 on FD and boasts a 90 percent Bargain Rating there.
First baseman Freddie Freeman is projected to bat in his usual third spot for a Braves team currently implied for 4.6 runs. He’s been as hot as any player in the league lately:
And his advanced stats match: In his last 10 games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 257 feet, an exit velocity of 96 MPH, a line-drive rate of 43 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 60 percent. Those are incredible marks. What makes Freeman so interesting today is that he’s facing a fellow lefty in Adam Morgan, which should diminish his ownership. Freeman is still solid versus lefties: He has a .392 wOBA, .218 ISO, and .516 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s an intriguing GPP option.