The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There’s a two-game early slate at 12:35 pm ET and a 10-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today priced at $9,000 or above on FanDuel; Gerrit Cole is the only one not in the main slate.
Even though today’s high-end salaries are depressed — Jacob deGrom is the highest-priced pitcher at only $12,700 on DraftKings and $10,600 on FanDuel — the cohort is strong: There are currently six players with K Predictions above 8.0. The one stud in the main slate who doesn’t have a K Prediction that high is Seattle lefty James Paxton, who faces an Angels team whose projected lineup has a low SO/AB rate of just 0.233. That said, Paxton’s 7.1 K Prediction is still high enough to warrant rostering, and he does have the best Vegas data of the day. The Angels are currently implied for just 3.2 runs — 0.5 runs fewer than any other team — and Paxton is the largest favorite with -187 moneyline odds. Per the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable marks have historically been solid values on FanDuel:
That Consistency Rating is great for cash games, and Paxton himself has been great in that regard lately, posting a +10.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 90 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 starts:
His Statcast data is in line with his current form: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 201 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of just 13 percent. With a solid matchup and a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, he’s a solid cash-game play.
The main slate stud with the worst Vegas data is Dodgers righty Yu Darvish, although his massive 9.4 K Prediction is the highest mark of the day. And his Vegas data isn’t that bad: He’s a large -177 favorite against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are currently implied for 3.9 runs. He doesn’t have a great matchup at Chase Field, where he has a 49 Park Factor. So what is more important: A slightly higher opponent implied run total or K Prediction? That’s an easy question for the Trends tool, and the latter definitely wins; pitchers with similar K Predictions and opponent implied run totals have historically been excellent, posting a +5.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64.9 percent Consistency Rating:
Darvish is coming off an excellent game in which he struck out 10 Mets and allowed just three hits and no runs in seven innings — a 61.0-point FanDuel outing. That said, his Statcast data does have a couple concerning marks, most notably a batted ball distance allowed of 226 feet and an exit velocity allowed of 91 miles per hour. He has the highest strikeout upside of the bunch against an Arizona squad with a 23.6 percent K rate this season, but he also has the most risk.
There are other guys who have a more balanced mix of Vegas data and strikeout upside, and tournaments will likely come down to balancing the ownership levels of these guys. Darvish is projected at the lowest range currently (nine to 12 percent), and thus he could be worth using in tournaments. Paxton will be popular for the reasons mentioned above, and deGrom has a nice matchup against the Phillies and a high 8.4 K Prediction. The cheapest of the bunch, Danny Salazar, might have the best blend of everything for tournaments. He’s facing a Rays squad currently implied for 3.7 runs — tied for the second-lowest mark of the day — and he’s a moderate -141 favorite. More importantly, he’s in a pitcher’s park in Tampa Bay and gets a Rays team that has the second-highest K rate this season at 25.3 percent. Salazar has absolutely dominated his last three starts . . .
. . . and has allowed a low 28 percent hard hit rate over his last two. His 8.8 K Prediction is the second-highest mark today, and he certainly has double-digit upside.
Again, these guys are all close in a lot of metrics; ownership in tournaments will be key tonight. Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels after lineups lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Even with all the studs in the slate, it’s Reds righty Luis Castillo who is currently the top-rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has a beautiful matchup against the Padres, who are a DFS pitcher’s dream: They rank 29th this season with a low .301 team wOBA and second with a 25.3 percent team strikeout rate. They are currently implied for 3.9 runs, and Castillo has a high 8.1 K Prediction. He wasn’t amazing in his last game, allowing three runs, walking five, and striking out just four batters across 6.1 innings, but his recent Statcast data is elite: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 179 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 22 percent, and a hard hit rate of 19 percent. He’s in a hitter’s park at home, but he does get the benefit of umpire Chad Whitson, who has historically added 1.5 FanDuel points over expectations to pitchers. At only $9,400 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel, Castillo will likely be one of the most popular options today. Unfortunately, he’s available only in the early slate.
In the main slate, Sonny Gray could be an interesting pivot down from the studs; he’s right below them in salary at $10,900 on DraftKings and $8,900 on FanDuel. He faces a Toronto team currently implied for 3.9 runs, and he has perhaps the best recent Statcast data in the slate, although it is based only on his last start. In that game against a solid Cleveland offense, he allowed a batted ball distance of 161 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 27 percent, and a hard hit rate of 22 percent. He’s also in a tough park today in Toronto and, unlike Castillo, he has a negative umpire for pitchers in Jerry Meals. Still, Gray has been incredibly consistent over his last 10 games, averaging a +7.96 Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating . . .
. . . and he’s currently projected for just five to eight percent ownership on FanDuel.
Fastballs
Tyler Skaggs: The Angels lefty faces a Seattle team currently implied for 4.4 runs, and he’s a sizable +169 dog against Paxton. That said, his 6.4 K Prediction is solid enough and he held batters to a ridiculously low 80 MPH exit velocity in his last start. At just $6,200 on DraftKings, he’s worth a look as an SP2 option.
Brad Peacock: He has been atrocious his last two games, allowing nine earned runs and 12 hits while striking out just 10 batters. His recent Statcast data isn’t encouraging either: In those games, he allowed a batted ball distance of 225 feet and an exit velocity of 94 MPH. Still, he has an 8.4 K Prediction against a poor White Sox offense and should have low ownership given his recent struggles.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
They have a current implied run total of 4.8 runs, which is just seventh in the main slate and thus should keep ownership levels down. They face Baltimore lefty Wade Miley, who has some concerning Statcast data of late: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 211 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 39 percent. He has the second-highest WHIP in the slate at 1.746, and he’ll have to deal with some Oakland batters who are hitting the ball well right now. Marcus Semien is projected to bat second for the A’s, and over his last 14 games he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 233 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 43 percent. It is also important to note that this Oakland quintet costs just $18,600, which provides enough cap space to afford some of the high-priced pitching studs or other high-implied bats.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a top group for today’s main slate:
The Houston Astros are currently tied with three other teams for the top mark in the slate with 5.3 implied runs. They have the best offense in baseball this season — their .360 team wOBA is easily the best mark in the league — and they’re always a threat to hit double-digit runs on a given night. They face White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon, who has allowed a batted ball distance of 215 feet and an exit velocity of 91 MPH over his last two starts. Going against a lefty does put most of their batters on the wrong side of their splits, and still they’ve averaged the third-most FantasyDraft points against lefties this season:
Jose Altuve is projected to bat second tonight and has averaged a batted ball distance of 240 feet over his last 12 games. Again, there isn’t much to say about the Astros that hasn’t been said all year: They’re an excellent stack in GPPs.
Batters
On the early slate, Joey Votto is the second-most expensive batter at $5,300 on DraftKings, but he has the best recent Statcast data: Over his last 14 games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 253 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 53 percent. Those are scary numbers to fade in a two-game slate, especially at home, where he has a 61 Park Factor. He and teammate Zack Cozart lead the early-slate batters with nine and 10 Pro Trends, although they will have to battle against Padres righty Dinelson Lamet, who has been pitching well of late, averaging a 163-foot batted ball distance, 82 MPH exit velocity, and 16 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts. The Reds are currently implied for a high 4.7 runs at home. This battle will likely determine early-slate GPPs.
On the main slate, I’m curious about the ownership for Giancarlo Stanton, who is projected to bat second for a Marlins team currently implied for just 4.3 runs — a mediocre mark in the 10-game contest. He’s extravagantly expensive at $5,600 on DraftKings — the highest salary today — and other guys around him like Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge have much better matchups. That said, Stanton is a scary fade right now given his recent Statcast data: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 239 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 54 percent, and a hard hit rate of 48 percent. He has a massive .325 past-year ISO against righties and could see reasonable ownership tonight given the surrounding options; he’s projected for just five to eight percent ownership in DraftKings GPPs currently.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
