The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
If you’re judging only by his game log, Russell Westbrook has certainly not been a ‘stud’ this season:
The Thunder are clearly still trying to figure it out offensively after bringing in a couple of All Stars in the offseason; they currently rank just 18th in offensive efficiency. While Westbrook and the Thunder will be fine, today might not be the best day to bank on them getting right: The Spurs have allowed an average Plus/Minus of -3.31 to the PG position on FanDuel this season, and they’ve historically been one of the few teams Westbrook has struggled against:
That said, this is still Westbrook: He leads the slate with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Dennis Smith Jr. has played at least 34 minutes in each of his last two games and is coming off impressive performances against two strong defensive teams in the Spurs and Thunder. Smith continues to lead the team with a 29.8 percent usage rate and gets a solid matchup today against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who rank 26th in defensive efficiency and are allowing an average Plus/Minus of +2.39 to opposing PGs. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
With Delon Wright ruled out for today’s contest, Fred Van Vleet will likely have the opportunity to play solid minutes off the bench as the backup PG. He’s been a productive player when on the court this season, averaging 0.84 fantasy points per minute, and he’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Dallas has been one of the worst teams defensively this season, ranking just 27th in defensive efficiency. They’ve struggled in particular with opposing PGs, which puts Jeff Teague squarely on the radar at $6,700 on FanDuel. He has one of the top Opponent Plus/Minus ratings at the position at +4.92 and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.23 over his last 10 contests.
Goran Dragic has been one of the most reliable PGs over the past 12 months, posting a Consistency Rating of 91 percent on FanDuel. He gets to play in a slight pace-up spot today against the Washington Wizards, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +2.1; Dragic has historically done well in comparable pace-up situations:
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG position is absolutely loaded on today’s slate. Devin Booker probably stands out as the top high-priced option, especially on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He leads the team with a usage rate of 28.1 percent and gets a solid matchup today against the Los Angeles Lakers, who are playing at the third-fastest pace in the league this season. This is the second leg of a road back-to-back for the Suns, but Booker has surprisingly thrived in these situations before:
Is it too early to call Donovan Mitchell a stud? He’s certainly played like one recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.79 over his last 10 games, and he leads the Jazz with a 29.2 percent usage rate. He draws one of the best matchups possible today against the Brooklyn Nets, who rank first in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. Combining the slow pace of the Jazz with the breakneck pace of the Nets results in a paceD of +10.0 for Mitchell, and players with comparable salaries and paceDs have historically fared well:
Value
The Suns will be without Tyson Chandler again tonight, which has resulted in their already-bad defense becoming downright atrocious this season. They allowed 142 points to the Rockets last night without Chandler, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 117.25 is the top mark on the slate by a margin of three points. Jordan Clarkson isn’t playing a ton of minutes for the Lakers this season, but he’s making the minutes that he is playing count: He leads the team with a usage rate of 29.3 percent and is averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute.
Sindarius Thornwell has played close to 30 minutes in each of his last two contests and should retain that role tonight with Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari both unlikely to play. He hasn’t exactly produced much in those minutes, but historically minimum-priced players on DraftKings projected for at least 25 minutes have been a solid investment:
Fast Break
Lou Williams is playing heavy minutes for the Clippers given all their injuries, and he’s turned those minutes into two games with at least 49.75 fantasy points over his last three games. It’ll be tough not to roster him tonight.
Nicolas Batum made his return for the Hornets on Wednesday and put up 33.75 DraftKings points in 32 minutes of action. The minutes are particularly encouraging and suggest he likely won’t have much of a limitation in that department moving forward. He’s currently priced at just $6,000 on DraftKings, and he has historically been a solid value when comparably-priced:
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James will be playing without Derrick Rose again today, but playing without Rose this season has actually seemed to hurt him more than help him:
That said, LeBron still leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and the Cavs’ implied team total of 114.75 points is the second-highest mark on today’s slate. With Gallinari already ruled out, the task of guarding LeBron will likely fall on the shoulders of Wesley Johnson, who has a Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) of -0.16 this season.
Value
Here’s what Courtney Lee has done over his last 10 games:
He has a tough matchup on paper against the Toronto Raptors, but the Raptors haven’t been the same team defensively this season: Lee’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.15 is one of the better marks at the SF position. His $4,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Otto Porter has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on DraftKings, and he’s someone who is always capable of putting up a big game thanks to his ability to rack up defensive statistics. He played 39.5 minutes in his last game and could approach a similar mark again today.
The only thing that can stop T.J. Warren from hitting value these days is a blowout, which, unfortunately for the Suns, seems to happen a couple times a week at this point. While Booker may get the attention, Warren ranks just slightly behind him in both usage and fantasy production in games without Eric Bledsoe this season; his $6,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Power Forward
Studs
Blake Griffin has posted usage rates of 38.1 and 40.2 percent over his last two games, thanks in part to all of the injuries for the Clippers. He draws an excellent matchup today against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season and have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.56 to opposing PFs. He’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Paul Millsap is starting to settle into his new role with the Nuggets:
He’ll likely see as many minutes as he can handle tonight against the big man tandem of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins for the Pelicans, and the total on that game has already increased by four points since opening.
Value
Derrick Favors should continue to handle all the minutes at center given the injury to Rudy Gobert, which likely makes him underpriced at $5,900 on DraftKings. So far this season, he’s averaged just under 31 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Gobert off the court:
That number increases to over 37 DraftKings points if we look only at the full games he’s played without Gobert, and Favors gets to take on a Brooklyn Nets team that has been shredded by opposing centers so far this season:
Fast Break
Davis and Cousins are always in play, and both have Bargain Ratings of at least 93 percent on DraftKings for tonight’s slate. Their matchups against the Nuggets’ big men aren’t great – Davis has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.17; Cousins, -3.92 – but that will likely result in lower ownership than usual for guaranteed prize pools.
It hasn’t taken Kyle Kuzma long to become a factor for the Los Angeles Lakers. He’s played at least 31 minutes in seven straight games, and his play has been so impressive that he’s started to take away more and more minutes from Brook Lopez. He should enjoy today’s matchup with the Suns: He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.95.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has been wonderful this season and gets a matchup today with a Pacers team he destroyed for 47.75 DraftKings points earlier this season. The Pacers’ rebound rate continues to decline – they rank in the bottom-10 currently after ranking 12th on November 1st – resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.64 for Drummond in today’s matchup. He leads the center position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s one of the few centers to be a value there versus on DraftKings.
Value
Greg Monroe has always been a productive per-minute player, and he’s averaging 1.03 FanDuel points per minute so far this season. At his current $3,700 salary, he doesn’t need to play many minutes to pay off his salary, evidenced by his 20-point, 11-rebound performance yesterday in just 26 minutes of court time. It’s going to be hard to find a better value for cash games on FanDuel, where his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic has been pretty good over his last 10 games on DraftKings:
Despite that fact, his salary has actually decreased by roughly $800 since its peak. He has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings, where his 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most on the slate.
Serge Ibaka was recently added to the injury report for the Raptors, and, if he were unable to go, it would likely solidify the minutes for Jonas Valanciunas. It’s impossible to feel comfortable playing him, but the Knicks are one of the few teams who like to play a traditional center at all times. If he does see a full minute load, he should be able to pay off his $5,100 DraftKings salary relatively easily given his average of 1.09 fantasy points per minute.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
