This piece focuses on five golfers projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check out our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after contests lock to track ownership rates across all buy-in levels.
Five Under Five
Last week’s results: Three of five players made the cut and scored 83.5 DraftKings points or more.
- Roberto Castro: MC, 26.0 DraftKings points, 3.19 percent average ownership
- Scott Brown: T25, 93.0 DraftKings points, 9.51 percent avg ownership
- Andres Romero: T25, 97.0 DraftKings points, 0.57 percent avg ownership
- Sebastian Munoz: MC, 30.5 DraftKings points, 2.77 percent avg ownership
- Seamus Power: T25, 83.5 DraftKings points, 3.45 percent avg ownership
Only Brown (9.51 percent) was owned at an average greater than five percent. Romero was the best play of the bunch: He scored 97.0 DraftKings points and was owned at less than one percent.
Flat Brim
As I’ve noted in this piece previously, a great way to find potentially low-owned yet talented golfers in our Models is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries could also have low ownership.
That said, this week it’s a little bit trickier because of the extreme value that can be found with low-priced golfers. Players like Daniel Berger ($6,800), Steve Stricker ($6,800), and Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($6,900) all have excellent LT Adj Rd Scores and low salaries— but they’re unlikely to be owned at less than five percent in large guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) — especially now that Brandt Snedeker has withdrawn. One similar player, however, may be flying under the radar in his flat-brimmed hat: Kevin Chappell.
Prior to missing the cut at the Quicken Loans National, Chappell had ripped off nine straight made cuts, with a win at the Texas Open, a top-10 at the Masters, and a top-five finish at the St. Jude Classic included. He is tied for 36th in this elite field with his 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score. Chappell’s 60.3 LT Driving Accuracy percentage should help him navigate this tight course, and his respectable 12.1 LT Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) certainly won’t hurt him. Chappell is 1-1 in his attempts at The Open: He finished T53 last year at Royal Troon.
A Two-Time Major Champion
Speaking of good LT Adjusted Rd Scores, Martin Kaymer — a two-time major championship winner and former world’s No. 1 ranked player — is tied for 31st in the field with his mark of 69.2. Kaymer is in terrible form (his Recent Adj Rd Score has ballooned to 70.5) with three missed cuts in his last five events, including last week at the Scottish Open.
On the bright side, Kaymer has good history at The Open: Eight cuts made in nine attempts, with three finishes of 12th or better. If you’re able to roster a two-time major champion with solid event history at less than five percent ownership in large-field GPPs, you might as well take a shot.
A Two-Time Amateur Champion
Although this will be his first appearance in The Open since 2007, Mark Foster is a perfect 3-3 in cuts made at this event with two top-35 finishes. The 41-year-old Foster is no stranger to links golf: He’s from Worksop (the same town as Lee Westwood), and he won the English Amateur Championship twice before turning pro in 1995. His lone victory on the European Tour was in the 2003 Dunhill Championship. Foster has made four of his last six cuts and has two top-10 finishes during that stretch. His 67.0 Long-Term GIR percentage equals the marks of Tony Finau and Charles Howell III. If he is owned at greater than 0.5 percent in DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker, I’d be shocked.
An Aussie Not Named Day or Scott
Andrew Dodt — who was in position to win the Scottish Open last week — is coming off two straight top-20 finishes at similar links style tracks. Importantly, Dodt has shot 69 or lower in four of his last eight rounds at links courses and enters this tournament in great form, as evidenced by his 69.7 Recent Adj Rd Score. This will be Dodt’s debut at The Open, but he has made the cut in five of his last six events, with two finishes of sixth or better in that stretch. Dodt’s 68.7 Recent GIR percentage and 13.3 Recent Adj Bird Avg make him even more attractive this week. We currently project him at zero to one percent ownership.
The Thai Paratrooper
Thongchai Jaidee, a 47-year-old veteran with 10 previous trips to The Open, is another player likely to be overlooked this week. Jaidee has played in every Open Championship since 2009, making six of eight cuts in that stretch, including every one of his last four attempts. His best finish is a T13 at Turnberry, but he was also T22 at Royal Troon last year. Thongchai has a very respectable 70.3 LT Adj Rd Score and 12.0 LT Adj Bird Avg, but be forewarned: He is not in great form. In fact, he missed the cut at both last week’s Scottish Open and the previous week’s Irish Open; his Recent Adj Rd Score is an ugly 72.4. Jaidee doesn’t come without risk, but he can also be had at a discount on DraftKings, FanDuel, and FantasyDraft.
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Good luck, and be sure to do your own PGA research with the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
