Consider this your one-stop shop for all things concerning the Week 11 DFS slate. As always, consult our tools below for an even deeper dive into the numbers. Good luck!
Models | Vegas Dashboard | Matchups | Injuries
Positional breakdowns
Quarterback
The Chiefs and Alex Smith are implied for 27.25 points as -10.5 road favorites against the Giants, who have allowed top-three fantasy marks to quarterbacks with 22.7 DraftKings and 21.2 FanDuel PPG. Smith leads the league with a 9.4 AY/A and makes for a high-upside foundational piece in Chiefs stacks. Read more in the QB Breakdown
Running Back
Rex Burkhead seized control of the Patriots’ backfield last week, leading it with a 51.4 percent snap share and showing off his three-down skill set (10 carries, three receptions). Bigger than Dion Lewis, more athletic than Mike Gillislee, and more versatile than both, Burkhead is likely to get his touches against a Raiders defense ranked 24th in rush DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA against running backs. He’s the highest-rated RB in our Models for DraftKings. Read more in the RB Breakdown
Wide Receiver
The Patriots-Raiders game opened with an over/under of 50.0 points and has jumped to a slate-high 55.0. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree could benefit from a shootout, and while DFS players may balk at the thought of rostering C&C in cash games there’s little to suggest they can’t have success against a Pats defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Read more in the WR Breakdown
Tight End
Since Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall suffered season-ending ankle injuries in Week 5, Evan Engram has functioned as New York’s No. 1 receiver, turning 38 targets into a 21/243/4 receiving line over four games. The Giants are +10.5 home dogs and will likely have a pass-heavy game script against the Chiefs, who haven’t been great against tight ends since All-Pro safety Eric Berry (Achilles’) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1. Bang-for-buck stud Travis Kelce seems primed for red zone production as the Chiefs prepare to toy with the lowly Giants. Read more in the TE Breakdown
Defense and Special Teams
The Minnesota Vikings have our second-highest projected sack total (3.5) at home against the Los Angeles Rams this week. We currently have them projected at 0-1 percent ownership on both sites, making them a great play in guaranteed prize pools. Read more in the D/ST Breakdown
Everything Else You Need To Know
Things continue to point toward Saints WR Michael Thomas as a contrarian pivot away from the chalkiness of the Saints RBs. Not only does he lead the league in target share over the past four games, but he also leads all players with 54.8 percent of his team’s Air Yards during that span. Read more in the Market Share Report
Rams WR Robert Woods has four touchdowns over the past two weeks, while Sammy Watkins has managed to convert his past five targets into three receptions for 108 yards and two touchdowns. But they’re candidates to fade this week with the Vikings’ eighth-ranked defense in DVOA and all-world cornerback Xavier Rhodes looming. Read more in the WR/CB Matchups column
Bucs-Dolphins has some sneaky shootout potential. Miami ranks 31st in pass DVOA and owns the second-highest pass funnel rating among defenses this year. That’s good news for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who gets back No. 1 target Mike Evans from suspension. And if you’re interested in rocking a game stack, Dolphins WR DeVante Parker also has a juicy matchup vs. Tampa’s No. 28 pass D. Read more in the Funnel Defense Ratings column
The Patriots boast the slate’s highest implied team total at 31 points. Since 2014, Brady and the Patriots have been implied for at least 29 points in 18 games. In those 18 games, Brady is averaging 24.78 DraftKings points per game with a +3.83 Plus/Minus and a 61.1 percent Consistency Rating. Brady checks all the boxes to justify paying up at quarterback this week. Read more in the Single-Entry Savant column
The Ravens’ Joe Flacco looked impressive last week against the Titans, but his deeper (20-yards+) balls are getting picked off at a league-high clip. Read more in the In The Trenches Passing Game column
The Bills may choose to rely on Shady McCoy more than ever before with rookie Nathan Peterman replacing Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, but it’s fair to question how Shady will perform without a rushing threat under center. Read more in the In The Trenches Running Game Column
There aren’t many cheap quarterbacks in plus spots, but Blake Bortles facing the Browns qualifies. They’ve allowed 19 passing touchdowns against just six on the ground. The Jaguars, however, don’t push Bortles. Everything outside the matchup — the Jaguars’ own tendencies as well as the current team total — suggests Bortles has a limited ceiling. Read more in the Deconstructing the Vegas Betting Lines column
Last year, the Saints were 30th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA); this year, the Saints are fourth. After their 47-10 road victory over the Bills, the Saints rank first in the league with a +5.5 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. Given the market expectations, the Saints defense has been the league’s most undervalued unit. Read more in the Vegas Report
The Bengals’ A.J. Green will be on the road in Denver this week and projects to be the lowest-owned he’s been all year. The shine of the Denver defense is slowly starting to fade, as it allowed 92 points over the last two weeks. The secondary simply hasn’t been shutting wide receivers down as it once did. Read more in the Five Under Five column
